Midterm election is on November 3, 2026
Before the November 2026 election Republicans control both houses of congress and the executive branch (Trump), which allows Trump to prevail in most decisions.
First the hopeful predictions of the November 2026 election outcomes
As of September 21, 2026 Polymarket predicts:
65% chance Democrats take the Senate and 93% chance Democrats take the House
https://polymarket.com/predictions/midterms
Polymarket is relatively board based and includes voters and informed political scientists. It does not monitor political maleficence roll in predicting election outcomes.
Racetothewh.com uses polling to predict the November 2026 election outcome.
It does not monitor political maleficence roll in predicting election outcomes.
Senate Predication: total of 100 seats:
Democrats: 51 seats; Republicans 46 seats, Independent Sanders (votes Democratic); if tie vote VP JD Vance votes Republican 2 seats to close to predict
https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26 predicts based on polling probabilities
68.9% chance Democrats will have majority in Senate
31,1% chance Republican will have a majority in Senate
House prediction Total seats 435:
Democrats 214 seats; Republicans 200 seats predication; ; 21 seats too close to predict
Total seats 435
https://www.racetothewh.com/house predicts based on polling
83.6% chance Democrats will have majority in House
16.4% chance Republicans will have majority in House
Predictions of November 2026 elections when accounting for Republican cheating outlined below:
First:
The 2020 election is instructive of what has a relatively high probability of happening in the November 2026 mid-terms.
“...The first systemic anomaly to emerge on post-mortem (2020 election) was that, of 27 U.S. House contests rated as “tossups” by the Cook Political Report and The New York Times, Republicans were victorious in all 27. Assuming tossup equates to a 50-50 chance, a penny flip, the probability of such an outcome would be less than one in 100 million. ….Nonetheless, the 27-for-27 table-run starkly defied expectations – it is safe to say that if it had gone the other way, the GOP would not simply have shrugged and moved on…”
From an article analyzing the 2020 congressional elections results by:
Dr. Simon is a graduate of Harvard College and New York University School of Law.
https://whowhatwhy.org/politics/elections/the-real-steal-electoral-forensics-and-the-2020-election
Trump leads RNC in pledge to 'cheat like hell' in November elections “Politics” Sep 11, 2026
Here are some of the Republican malfeasances (cheating) that are now taking place and/or have been announced that will allow the Republicans to maintain control of the Senate and House after the November 2026 election:
Voter Roll purges in swing states of voters, of voters who tend to vote Democratic:
In North Carolina, Republicans are aiming to remove 225,000 voters
In Arizona, Republican Party leaders are suing the state to remove 500,000 Arizonans from the voter rolls.
In Georgia, Republican state legislators passed a new law just months before the election to make it easier to purge voters, following Republicans’ efforts to challenge more than 100,000 Georgia voter rolls in recent years.
Other Battlegrounds: States like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan frequently see legal maneuvers and data-matching programs pushed by the GOP and allied federal initiatives to scrub voter rolls under the banner of "election integrity".
… millions of names may already be scrubbed from voter rolls. If you’re Black, Latino, a student, a woman who changed her name at marriage, a military service member, or simply someone who moved apartments, you’re already a target.
… break it down:
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, the U.S. Election Assistance Commission reported over 19 million names purged from voter rolls.
*While many were valid (deceased or moved), at least 4.47 million were blocked from voting due to bureaucratic tricks like “failure to return confirmation notices,” a tactic voting rights lawyers call “caging.
*”ACLU found that 63.3% of voters purged via caging were wrongly removed. Many were African-American.
*Georgia’s GOP Secretary of State proudly doubled down in 2023, targeting 875,000 voters, and that’s just one state.
Republican voter intimidation at polling places:
Trump homeland security chief says ICE (masked ) agents could be sent to polling places
Markwayne Mullin says officers could be deployed ‘if there is a threat to that polling place or we’re serving a warrant’
The US homeland security secretary, Markwayne Mullin, on Tuesday said that federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers could be deployed to polling sites across the country.
Mullin’s latest comments follow statements he made in July, when he threatened to withhold federal aid from states that refused to comply with homeland security election directives as part of the administration’s crackdown on what it alleges is widespread voter fraud.
“We will scrub all election records, looking for illegal aliens and those who are ineligible to vote, including those that somehow voted, yet they were deceased,” Mullin said earlier this summer, adding: “If states want the grant funding, to recap, they must secure the election.”
Yet experts say the administration has failed to offer any proof for its claims of non-citizen voting. In one instance, the DHS officials claimed that there may have been as many as 16,000 non-citizens registered to vote in Nevada, but later admitted they could confirm that only 185 of those people were actually non-citizens, according to records obtained by the Guardian.
President Trump’s former White House adviser Steve Bannon is calling for ICE agents to be deployed at polling sites during the midterm elections. His comments come just days after President Trump called on Republicans to “nationalize” voting in the U.S.
…Patel (head of FBI) won’t say whether FBI agents will be at the polls this fall
The FBI director faced senators’ questions about election activity, hiring standards and the bureau’s handling of AI crimes during a tense five-hour hearing on Tuesday.
Trump's top strategist and his emissary to white nationalism, Steve Bannon, has now issued a call to far-right militiamen to "Come to the polls armed."
In response, Democratic Senator Ed Markey said, “This is a red alert moment. We have to start working to protect polling places from Trump’s paramilitary ICE goons before it’s too late.”